The September quarter offered a sense of cautious optimism.
After two years of sharp policy moves and shifting sentiment, inflation finally showed signs of settling, and central banks began to hold steady. Growth has slowed, but in many ways, that’s the reset the global economy needed.
1. Gold shines as a global safe haven
Gold has been one of the strongest performers this quarter, rising to around US$4,100 an ounce in early October, its highest level on record. The climb reflects a mix of central banks increasing their reserves, investors seeking security amid geopolitical tensions, and ongoing uncertainty in equity markets.
For Australia, this surge carries weight. Treasury now expects gold exports to reach roughly A$60 billion in 2025–26, overtaking LNG as our second-largest resource export. That’s a valuable offset to softer demand for iron ore and lithium from China, as well as a boost to national income. Producers such as Northern Star and Newmont Australia are among those benefiting, supporting regional employment and investment in Western Australia and Queensland.
2. The US takes a measured approach
In the United States, the Federal Reserve trimmed its benchmark rate by 0.25% in September. Inflation has cooled to about 2.5%, close to the target, while growth remains moderate at a forecast of 2.3% for 2025. Markets were largely steady, with the S&P 500 edging up 0.4% over the quarter.
However, a late-September proposal to raise tariffs on Chinese goods reminded investors that geopolitics can shift market mood quickly. The broader theme remains resilience: the US economy appears stable enough to avoid recession, though momentum is softer than in previous years.
3. Australian shares reflect a focus on quality
Closer to home, the ASX 200 slipped 1.8% to finish near 8,880 points. Financials were a standout, led by ANZ’s ten-year high following its 2030 cost-reduction strategy. By contrast, technology, property, and healthcare stocks eased as investors favoured companies with reliable cash flow and steady dividends.
The mood across the market is one of discernment rather than exuberance. Investors are prioritising quality, income, and consistency, factors that tend to matter most as interest rates plateau and earnings normalise.
4. Interest rates: patience prevails
The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept the cash rate at 3.6% since May. Inflation has slowed to 2.1% and unemployment remains around 4.2%, suggesting the economy is holding up under tighter conditions.
The RBA has signalled no urgency to move rates. Markets currently expect the next change to be a cut sometime in mid-2026, though that could arrive earlier if spending or employment softens. For now, households and businesses can expect a period of relative stability after the sharp adjustments of recent years.
5. Oil prices and Australia’s balancing act
Oil prices have been volatile, fluctuating between US$82 and US$95 per barrel during the quarter as OPEC+ supply limits and regional tensions kept markets tight.
For Australia, the impact cuts both ways. Higher energy prices lift export income from LNG and petroleum, yet they also push up freight and production costs, which can feed into inflation. The RBA will be watching closely to ensure rising fuel costs do not erode recent progress on prices.
6. Policy developments to note
Several domestic policy shifts emerged over the quarter:
Superannuation tax adjustments: The government confirmed that tax will apply only to realised gains on balances above $3 million, at 30% between $3 million and $10 million, and at 40% above that threshold.
Critical-minerals initiative: Consultations began on a $1.2 billion national stockpile aimed at improving resource security and supply resilience.
Industrial support: A $600 million assistance package was announced to maintain Glencore’s Mount Isa and Townsville operations, preserving regional jobs.
Currency movements: The Australian dollar traded between US63 cents and US67 cents, supported by commodity strength but restrained by global uncertainty.
Each of these decisions plays into broader economic stability and highlights the government’s focus on long-term competitiveness and resilience.
7. The outlook for 2026
As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy appears to be finding a steadier rhythm. Inflation is moderating, labour markets remain firm and central banks are adopting a measured stance. For investors, the main message is balance: maintain diversification, stay focused on quality assets, and avoid overreacting to short-term market shifts.
Each of these strategies can be valuable, but they can also be complex to implement. Seek personal financial advice if you think they may suit your situation.
If you would like to discuss how these developments may relate to your financial goals, please reach out to the team at Stream Financial.